In April 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its outlook for the global economy, projecting growth of 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, a slight downward revision from the previous estimate of 3.3% for 2026, while the projection for 2027 remained unchanged.
For its part, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs updated its outlook for global GDP growth, estimating 2.5% for 2026, down from the 2.7% figure released earlier this year, but projected stronger growth for 2027, with a forecast of 2.8% by year-end.
Regarding inflation, the IMF revised its estimate for global headline inflation in 2026 upward, from 3.8% to 4.4%; meanwhile, for 2027, it projected a rate of 3.7%, compared with the previously estimated 3.4%. This upward adjustment is primarily due to the impact of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East on commodity markets, inflation expectations, and global financial conditions.
Despite a less dynamic economic environment, the Mexican economy managed to remain in positive territory during the first quarter of 2026. According to INEGI, the primary and tertiary sectors recorded annual growth of 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively, partially offsetting the 1.1% decline in the secondary sector; as a result, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded real annual growth of 0.4% at the end of Q1 2026.
In terms of monetary policy, in May, the Bank of Mexico lowered the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points, from 6.75% to 6.50%, and, according to Banxico, this concludes the cycle of rate cuts that began in March 2024. This reduction gradually improves financing conditions while maintaining a prudent stance in the face of inflationary pressures.
On the other hand, the formal labor market continued to show positive signs. As of the end of March 2026, the IMSS reported annual growth of 1.2% in registered jobs. Additionally, during the first quarter of 2026, 207,604 jobs were created, 83.1% of which were permanent positions, strengthening household income stability.
In addition, the average contribution base wage increased by 7.1% year-over-year compared to March 2025. This increase improves the purchasing power of formally employed workers and strengthens the potential pool of mortgage borrowers.
The housing sector maintains a favorable outlook for 2026, supported by expected growth in demand for housing financing. According to the Federal Mortgage Society (SHF), demand for housing loans in Mexico is estimated at 864,290 loans in 2026, a 6.8% increase compared to 2025.
Of the estimated total, 493,139 loans would be for home purchases, equivalent to 57% of total demand, with a nearly even split between new and existing homes. This confirms a significant demand base for new home purchases during the year.
According to the SHF, Quintana Roo stood out as the state with the highest appreciation in the SHF Housing Price Index during the first quarter of 2026. The price of homes purchased with a mortgage in the state recorded an annual growth rate of 13.4% between January and March 2026, surpassing the national increase of 8.7% during the same period.
This trend occurred against the backdrop of a strong local labor market, as Quintana Roo ranked as the state with the second-highest labor force participation rate, at 66.7%, while the tertiary sector employed approximately 815,000 people, driven primarily by activities related to tourism and services. Taken together, these factors reinforce the state’s importance as one of the most dynamic housing markets in the country.