The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that global growth will maintain the trajectory observed since 2023, with a constant rate of approximately 3.2%, continuing through 2025. This results from a slowdown in emerging and developing economies, which has been offset by a slight acceleration in advanced economies.
The inflation rate is projected to reach 5.9% in 2024 and gradually decrease to 4.5% by 2025. The disparity between countries in terms of reducing inflation indicates that advanced economies will reach their inflation targets before emerging ones.
In summary, a positive outlook remains for the global economy despite moderate growth and the continued presence of geopolitical risks, as indicated by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Projections from the Bank of Mexico indicate a downward adjustment in the country's economic growth forecast, reducing the estimated increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 1.5% for 2024, compared to the 2.4% projection made in May.
In Mexico, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported that inflation reached 5.16% in the second half of July, which could prolong the economic pause imposed by the Bank of Mexico, whose reference rate is currently at 10.75%.
However, although inflation seems to have shown signs of deceleration, some analysts expect it to reach its target range by the end of 2025.
According to the Secretariat of Agrarian, Territorial, and Urban Development (SEDATU), the number of beneficiaries of the Institute of the National Housing Fund for Workers (Infonavit) rose to 10,114,320 in 2023, representing an increase of 29.81% compared to the 7,791,114 beneficiaries recorded in 2022. In this context, it is estimated that the demand for housing in Mexico will continue to be driven by demographic growth, urbanization, and government support policies.
Furthermore, Infonavit announced that from 2019 to the first quarter of 2024, 68,653 credits have been granted in Quintana Roo, the main area of operation for CADU. This has involved an investment of 38,913 million pesos, representing a 6% increase compared to the credits granted during the period from 2013 to 2018, and a 57% increase compared to the period from 2007 to 2012.
In this regard, during the first six months of 2024, the agency recorded an increase of almost 30% in credits granted for the housing purchase in Quintana Roo, compared with the same period of 2023, representing an investment of over 3,400 million pesos (+35% YoY).