During the third quarter of 2025, inflation continued to show a downward trend, with the International Monetary Fund estimating a decline to 4.2% for 2025 from 5.8% in 2024. Given this scenario, numerous central banks took measures to navigate this economic context, highlighting the decision by the US Federal Reserve, which reduced its interest rate for the second time in the year by 25 base points at the end of October, placing the target range for federal funds between 3.75% and 4.0%, its lowest point since 2022.
This shift in monetary policy, coupled with global trade agreements, notably: 1) the comprehensive update of the trade agreement between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (its main trading partners); and 2) the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between the European Union and Indonesia, contributed to lower volatility and increased risk tolerance in global markets. These circumstances, together with the expectation of a less restrictive approach by the Federal Reserve and various central banks, are expected to promote greater dynamism at the global stage.
Along the same lines, the global outlook showed signs of strengthening, with the WTO projecting that the volume of world merchandise trade will grow by 2.4% in 2025 (a considerable increase from the 0.9% estimate published in August), following its upward revision in October.
Despite the trade uncertainty at the beginning of the year, the IMF highlights that the impact was moderate due to the agility of the private sector, which brought forward imports and reorganized supply chains, the negotiation of new agreements, and the maintenance of open markets by most countries. As a result, the organization raised its confidence in global performance, projecting a growth rate of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, similar to the 2024 level (3.3%), reflecting resilience and an environment suitable for investment and trade as logistical and regulatory adjustments are consolidated.
Mexico is performing steadily amid lower inflation and more favorable financial conditions, according to the latest data from INEGI for October 2025, which showed an annual inflation rate of 3.57%, slightly lower than in September and remaining within the Bank of Mexico's target range for the fourth consecutive month. For its part, the Financial System Stability Council (CESF*) reported that the national financial system remains solid and resilient, with capital and liquidity in the banking system above regulatory minimums.
Local markets showed less volatility and more favorable conditions, while the peso has maintained a sustained appreciation since mid-September, registering approximately 12% growth from January to November 13, and the S&P/BMV IPC index rose more than 20% in the same period. This is even more relevant when we consider the latent uncertainty surrounding possible changes in trade policy with the United States.
At the same time, the World Bank adjusted its estimates for Mexican economic growth in 2025, raising them from 0.2% in June to 0.5% in October, while Mexico's sovereign credit rating retains its investment grade status, recently confirmed by S&P Global Ratings, placing it at BBB with a stable outlook.
In line with market expectations, the Bank of Mexico announced in early November its decision to reduce the interest rate by 25 base points, bringing it to 7.25%, its lowest level since May 2022. This decision reflects the cycle of monetary easing followed by the Bank of Mexico since 2024, with the intention of boosting economic dynamism.
*Composed by the Secretary of Finance and Public Credit, who chairs it, the Governor of the Bank of Mexico, the Deputy Secretary of Finance and Public Credit, two Deputy Governors of the Central Bank, the President of the National Banking and Securities Commission, the President of the National Insurance and Bonds Commission, the President of the National Commission for the Retirement Savings System, and the Executive Secretary of the Institute for the Protection of Bank Savings.Infonavit recently announced the simplification of its scheme, which eliminates the points system and allows applicants to apply for credit with six months of contributions, verifiable formal employment, no home ownership, and an income of between one and two minimum wages. This reduces entrance barriers, streamlines origination, and broadens the base of eligible beneficiaries, in line with the official prequalification process. This measure will strengthen effective demand in social interest segments.
On the other hand, the Federal Mortgage Society reported that, at the national level, the value of mortgaged housing grew 8.2% in the annual aggregate compared to the same period last year (8.4% in new housing), with an average value of $1,863,022 in the January–September 2025 period. Quintana Roo was the state with the highest price increase, with a variation of 14%, confirming the existence of solid demand and greater payment capacity.
Simultaneously, SEDATU reported that 5.8 million people were able to overcome housing shortages between 2018 and 2024, resulting in greater regularization of households and improved eligibility conditions for credit granting nationwide. However, more than 8 million households in Mexico still suffer from this problem, highlighting the persistent need for housing throughout the country.