So far in 2026, inflationary pressures have continued to normalize despite a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. In this regard, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipated that global headline inflation will decline from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026. In parallel, the IMF projects global growth to reach 3.1% in 2026, virtually maintaining the same level as in 2025.
For its part, in its latest monetary policy announcement (on December 11, 2025), the US Federal Reserve kept the upper limit of the federal funds interest rate at 3.75%, which contributes to greater stability in global financial conditions and helps sustain risk appetite.
Accordingly, the global economic growth forecast for 2026 showed consistency relative to 2025. On the one hand, the World Bank published an estimate of 2.6% for 2026 GDP, compared to 2.7% in 2025; and, on the other hand, the International Monetary Fund projected GDP growth of 3.3% for 2026 versus 3.2% in 2025.
During the first two months of 2026, inflation has shown a slight uptick as a result of pressures on certain agricultural products and some persistence in core inflation. Nevertheless, it remains very close to the Bank of Mexico’s target range, with the central bank estimating that inflation will stand at 3.8% in 2026. Should this relative inflation stability materialize, a more favorable environment for consumption and investment could be expected.
Regarding economic activity, INEGI reported that in 2025 GDP grew 0.7% relative to 2024, confirming a moderate but positive performance. It is worth noting that the International Trade Administration stated that, due to the 2026 World Cup, to be held in Mexico, the United States, and Canada, it anticipates an economic spillover of USD 3.0 billion for Mexico, which is shaping up to be an attractive economic boost for the country.
In terms of monetary policy, Banxico reduced the target rate by 25 base points in December to 7.0%, which supports financing conditions and lays the groundwork for strengthening the economic cycle in the coming periods.
Based on figures presented by SEDATU, new homes financed nationwide by INFONAVIT during the January–November 2025 period totaled 171,763 units, equivalent to a 2.0% year-over-year increase. In the case of Quintana Roo, an 8.4% increase was also recorded in the number of loans granted by INFONAVIT during the same period for the acquisition of new homes.
The above, coupled with the 8.9% increase recorded by the SHF Housing Price Index in 4Q25 at the national level, confirms the strength of demand that continues to persist in Mexico.
According to the most recent data from SEDATU (February 2025), INFONAVIT’s potential demand in Quintana Roo reached 169,825 eligible beneficiaries (+7.5% vs. 2024), which, in addition to comparing favorably against the 157 thousand eligible beneficiaries recorded in February 2024, confirms a relevant population base with the potential to access housing financing.